ABSTRACT
Background & objectives: Robust forecasting of malaria cases is desirable as we are approaching towards malaria elimination in India. Methods enabling robust forecasting and timely case detection in unstable transmission areas are the need of the hour. Methods: Forecasting efficacy of the eight most prominent statistical models that are based on three statistical methods: Generalized linear model (Model A and Model B), Smoothing method (Model C), and SARIMA (Model D to model H) were compared using last twelve years (2008–19) monthly malaria data of two districts (Kheda and Anand) of Gujarat state of India. Results: The SARIMA Model F was found the most appropriate when forecasted for 2017 and 2018 using modelbuilding data sets 1 and 2, respectively, for both the districts: Kheda and Anand. Model H followed by model C were the two models found appropriate in terms of point estimates for 2019. Still, we regretted these two because confidence intervals from these models are wider that they do not have any forecasting utility. Model F is the third one in terms of point prediction but gives a relatively better confidence interval. Therefore, model F was considered the most appropriate for the year 2019 for both districts. Interpretation & conclusion: Model F was found relatively more appropriate than others and can be used to forecast malaria cases in both districts.
ABSTRACT
Background: Hypertension is widely prevalent across India. The rule of halves is commonly used to describe the attrition and gaps in the care cascade of hypertension management across detection, availing treatment, and having controlled blood pressure (BP) on treatment. Objectives: Using nationally representative data, we aimed to assess the rule of halves in hypertension management in different states of India and across sociodemographic, health system, and personal factors. Methods: A descriptive analysis of secondary data from the National Family Health Survey?4 was conducted. We included 770,662 individuals(112,122 men and 658,540 nonpregnant women) of 15–49 years of age. The proportion of individuals not aware of hypertension status among those with high BP, known hypertensives not availing of treatment, and uncontrolled BP among those on treatment were expressed as percentage with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Of those with high BP, 48.5% (95% CI: 47.8%–49.3%) were not aware of their hypertensive status. Among known hypertensives, 72% (95% CI: 71.2%–72.8%) had not availed treatment for hypertension. Among those on treatment, 39.8% (95% CI: 38.7%–40.9%) had uncontrolled hypertension. Conclusion: The rule of halves of India shows that the National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases, and Stroke has made relatively good progress with the detection of hypertension and achieving BP control among those on treatment. However, with three?fourth of known hypertensives not availing treatment, more dividends from the detection of hypertension efforts could be realized. The program needs to especially focus on ensuring the treatment for those detected with hypertension.
ABSTRACT
Background: According to Darwin's theory of evolution, complex creatures evolve from more simplistic ancestors. Dollo's law of irreversibility states that evolution is irreversible. However, cancer cells tend to follow anti-Dollo's law. Unfavorable conditions such as hypoxia, acidic pH and low nutrients cause the cancer cells to switch their lifestyle atavistically in order to survive. They start behaving like a unicellular organism. There is a switch from normal metabolism to Warburg effect and finally cannibalism. Cannibalism is a cell eating cell phenomenon. It is defined as a large cell enclosing a smaller one within its cytoplasm and is known by odd names such as “bird's eye cells” or “signet ring cells.” Smaller tumor cells are found in the cytoplasm of larger tumor cells with crescent-shaped nucleus. Cannibalistic cells (CCs) are a feature of aggressive tumors. These cell types are vulnerable to metastasis. Aim: The aim of this study is to identify CCs in various histological grades of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and to relate them with the pattern of invasion, lymphocytic response (LR), and mitotic figures (Mfs). The purpose of the article is to establish it as a marker of aggressiveness and metastasis and as an evidence of de-evolution and retroversion of multicellularity. Materials and Methods: Sixty-five histologically confirmed cases of OSCC were studied. Pattern of invasion, LR, number of CCs, and Mfs were recorded on 5 μ hematoxylin and eosin-stained tissue sections. ANOVA and t-test were applied; P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: CCs were more in sections with patchy LR, increased Mfs, and grade IV pattern of invasion. Conclusion: With increase in dedifferentiation, tumor cells start behaving like unicellular organisms with cell eating cell characteristics